The way he won the vote on Scott kept open the door to nationalists. If the Hume/Paisley method for elections is agreed, Dublin and John Hume’s SDLP will be in a stronger position to persuade the IRA to call a new ceasefire.Dublin and the SDLP expect an early date for all-party talks, probably in May, with minimal preconditions for Sinn Fein’s participation, other than ceasefire. Mr Major’s action on Monday is seen as a sign that the Government still values the ability of nationalists to deliver peace. He could have been accused of trading in the last chance for peace in Northern Ireland in exchange for a more comfortable Commons majority.DUBLIN AND THE SDLPJohn Major’s refusal to concede to David Trimble over the Scott report has earned plaudits from nationalist Ireland, which had accused him of appeasing the Ulster Unionists by moving too slowly on the peace process. So he had to reach an understanding with some Unionists without completely alienating Irish nationalists. That would have further complicated London’s relations with Dublin and scuppered any chance of the IRA declaring a fresh ceasefire.Had Mr Major not worried about the attitude of the Irish nationalists, his government could have done a deal with the Unionists that might have given him a more comfortable cushion of votes in the Commons But his reputation would have been fatally compromised.

What does it mean for:

MAJOR’S DILEMMA
On Monday night, the Prime Minister was desperate to avoid a humiliating defeat on the Scott report, which would have triggered an embarrassing confidence motion and may well have forced the resignation of William Waldegrave and/or Sir Nicholas Lyell.Given that the Conservatives have an overall majority of only two, and several Tories planned to vote against the Government, his best hope of survival was to win over at least some Northern Ireland Unionist MPs.But Mr Major also wanted to save the Northern Ireland peace process, his main achievement as Prime Minister. Poll after poll shows that he is the man most Republicans want as their nominee Alas, they are not voting that way.. The multi-millionaire publisher Steve Forbes, who is paying his own way, is subject to no such constraint and vows to continue the contest all the way, siphoning off votes that would have gone to Mr Dole.”If he starts spending more, I don’t know what to do,” Mr Dole says, “because sooner or later we’ll be out of money.” But even more quickly he must resolve a deadly paradox. The Dole camp yesterday said it was “revisiting the issue”.Most menacing of all in the medium term, he could run out of money. Having spent more than $25m(pounds 16m), Mr Dole is fast approaching the $37 million limit set for the primary campaign for candidates accepting federal matching funds. This week he responded to charges of excess negative advertising and failure to elaborate a message by reshaping his staff, sacking his pollster and demoting his deputy campaign chairman – who promptly resigned.Meanwhile, a familiar Dole problem has resurfaced in South Carolina: whether to take part in Thursday’s candidates’ debate, a forum in which he rarely shines, or skip it as he did in Arizona last week – only to offer fresh ammunition to his opponents that he was ducking the fight.

But assuming Mr Dole comes in only third in Arizona, his position is scarcely better.He desperately needs a success, to shore up his strength in the South before “Super Tuesday” ten days later when 362 convention delegates are at stake, more than a third of the 996 needed to win the nomination. If not, then the party establishment, so far lined up behind him almost to a man, will surely start looking elsewhere for a candidate to halt Mr Buchanan.Evidence of the Senate majority leader’s floundering campaign abounds. After a string of third place finishes, the former Tennessee Governor must win somewhere very soon, and probably nothing less than second in South Carolina will do. After South Carolina, a bellwether state described as a virtual “New Hampshire of the South,” the campaign turns into weekly multi-state mega-contests, where momentum is all.Like Arizona, South Carolina looks fertile Buchanan territory – a stronghold of the religious right, perfect for his stern “pro-life” platform, but also a state where jobs are at risk in textiles and other industries, and thus receptive to his “America First” economic views.For Lamar Alexander and Mr Dole, the stakes could hardly be higher.

RUPERT CORNWELL

Washington
Pat Buchanan, the new front runner for the Republican presidential nomination, took a narrow lead in yesterday’s Arizona primary over the publisher Steve Forbes, with Senator Bob Dole in third place, according to US television network exit polls.The polls suggest that the former commentator and Reagan speechwriter, whose combination of moralising conservatism and populist economics has set a previously dull campaign alight, by early afternoon held a 2-point margin over Mr Forbes – within the margin of statistical error – and a 6-point edge over Mr Dole.If Mr Buchanan can clinch a win in Arizona, and with it the 39 delegates it sends to this August’s convention, it will make him clear favourite in South Carolina, whose increasingly vital primary takes place on Saturday.Yesterday’s votes in Arizona and North and South Dakota (in both of which Mr Dole was expected to win) closed the first phase of the campaign, of smaller individual primaries. Bateman and Fleming made several return visits to the Arizona range, testing out different weapons.As their families struggled to understand the deaths, Bateman’s mother, Joan Bryan of Leicester, told the Daily Mail that her son went to America to “buy a gun. Stephen had this idea he had to be able to protect himself properly.”The three wore black combat trousers and leather boots and had their heads shaved close. It is thought that their travels around the country this year, from Michigan to California, were an attempt to link up with neo-Nazi groups..

Guns appear to have exerted a hypnotising influence over the three Britons, who are not known to have used weapons before they came to the US. “Alas, too many regrets.”Greenhow fired a single shot through her mouth with the handgun, a coroner said. Police also found a cheque for pounds 6m, presumed to be a fake, a wig and tapes of the British rock band Joy Division. Ian Curtis, the band’s 23-year-old lead singer, hanged himself in 1980.Shasta County deputy coroner Lieutenant John Boyle said Greenhow may have been inspired by the far-right ideology of US militias or possibly part of a cult group that identified with Joy Division.