The lack of dividends is one drawback, but I would imagine that if progress continues, cheques will eventually land on shareholders’ doormats.The proposed takeover spree could also help the shares. Almost certainly any acquisitions will be financed, at least in part, by share issues. Although, in a people company, it is always wise to ensure that vendors have a continuing incentive and become shareholders, any major deal could also encourage institutions to take an interest. As Mr Kearsey says: “With organic growth transforming the profits profile, we anticipate the market will begin to take an interest.
In addition, the prospect of acquisitions could act as a catalyst for interest in the share price.”Hat Pin certainly looks an intriguing candidate for the No Pain, No Gain portfolio which, as far as the number of constituents is concerned, is under strength. As I said recently, I am becoming increasingly disillusioned with a couple of my selections and could well be tempted to bite the bullet and indulge in a little reshaping.However S&U, the finance group that was on my hit list, has more than redeemed itself with impressive interim profits and a sturdy dividend increase. At 560p the shares are comfortably above my 292.5p buying price. The loans group is well managed but operates in an industry attracting increasing Westminster interest. And that could create problems.There is a growing danger of Government interference and shareholders can expect little consideration should the current administration get involved. So I would not be surprised if, despite its excellent record, I have to reconsider S&U’s portfolio membership.
As I have said on many occasions, the portfolio is for the long haul and I try to avoid too much chopping and changing. But when the environment changes, even well-run companies can become casualties.. Strange that no sooner had Marks & Spencer shareholders rejected the offer of 400p per share from Philip Green when he was hoping to take over the company, than we should be offered somewhere between 332p and 380p a share by the M&S management team. After all, it was they who kept telling us shareholders that Mr Green’s offer undervalued the group.
So what are we to make of it? Well, for a start we don’t know for sure how much we will get for our shares, so we have to indicate what we’ll expect within that 332p to 380p range. The offer closes on 22 October when a “strike price” will be calculated Shares offered at or below it will be paid in full Offers above it will be rejected.
It’s a bit like a public offering but in reverse – which, of course, it is.I’m inclined to go for it, at the upper end of the range, even after all these years of sticking with M&S I think it has lost the plot too many times now. My partner mentioned to me the other day how much better the range of clothes sold by Asda had become recently, and I would be very worried if I were an M&S manager about the new threat from these low-priced alternatives. M&S is squeezed at one end by the fashionable boutiques and at the other by the supermarkets I don’t know what it can do to resist the pressure. Tesco or Asda’s parent, Wal-Mart, looks a better bet than M&S.Unless, perhaps, there is a great big crash. What are we to make of the IMF’s gloomy prospectus for the world economy? The IMF, as you might expect, expresses itself in its official pronouncements with magnificent restraint. Commenting on the global surge in property prices, it couches its warnings in the following terms: “In cases where house prices may have exceeded fundamentals – which may include Australia, Ireland, Spain and the UK – there is a danger that higher interest rates could trigger a much larger downward adjustment in house prices.” A fall in British house prices, they say, cannot be ruled out.Well, that’s about as near to a red-top headline of “Crash! Bang! Wallop!” as such an august body will ever get. As it is, there is a surprising amount of evidence showing that consumer spending has been affected by the Bank of England’s modest but determined upwards nudge to rates.There is no good news in this.