She polled 65 per cent of the vote; while her Labour successor polled 52 per cent, as against Miss Betty Boothroyd’s 51 per cent in 1992.Every Tory and every journalist (except Mr Glover) has been happy to parrot the opinion that, because the Tories did not succeed in winning a single one of what were, from their point of view, three distinctly unpromising seats, the by-elections were a disaster for them. Certainly their leaders brought their troubles on themselves by not only proclaiming but, it seems, believing they would win West Bromwich Why they thought this, goodness only knows. But there we are.If the Preston result were repeated throughout the country at a general election, Labour would still be the largest party but short of the 330 seats required for an absolute majority. Admittedly it is perilous to project by-election results on to a national map, specially if they derive from a low turnout, as they did nine days ago. The pollsters tell us that the opinion polls are a better guide.

Well, they would, wouldn’t they? In fact it was possible to infer a big majority for Labour – even if of around 100 rather than 179 – from the by-elections of early 1997 and just before, as I did at the time.Likewise the by-elections of today mean something too The low turnout is particularly significant. There are few more misleading maxims than the one about “traditional” supporters: that they have nowhere else to go. On the contrary: they have plenty of places to go, notably their own sitting-rooms.One might have expected two by-election results that were bad for the Government to send Lord Ancram, the Conservative chairman, to the cameras and the microphones proclaiming a Tory revival of sorts. He is the son and heir of the 12th Marquess of Lothian, and a highly agreeable cove. “Mr Michael Ancram” is a populist wheeze.Another, less reluctant aristocrat, Lord Cranborne, sent his minions out to College Green and into the studios announcing that Mr John Major had won a famous victory in 1995.

He was then campaign manager to Mr Major, who had won the support of only 66 per cent of the Tory MPs Everyone believed these fibs. A leader in the old Manchester Guardian once went: “One is sometimes tempted to conclude that the Greeks do not want a stable government.’ Today we might say: “One is sometimes tempted to conclude that the Tories do not want to form a government of any kind ever again.”
More from Alan Watkins. Top-level efforts to revive the failed deal on climate change are to be made this week at the European Union summit in Nice. Tony Blair and EU leaders are seeking to thrash out a deal before President Clinton leaves office in the new year.