In the subsequent year he still estimates a figure of 2.75 per cent. But it is clear after two quarters that our economy has stagnated. The chances, therefore, that this year’s target for growth of between 2 and 2.5 per cent will be met must be severely reduced.Mr Brown’s arithmetic, if growth fails to match his expectations, has horrendous implications for public borrowing. Already, even if his optimistic forecasts are met, the public finances will plunge into the red to the tune of £11bn. Any failure to meet the growth targets that the Chancellor has set means a dramatic and sudden worsening of this deficit within the next two years. We have been here before with the Tory Chancellor Nigel Lawson. The famous “Lawson boom” came to a spectacular end when house prices crashed at the end of the 1980s.

Then, as now, the Treasury and the country were awash with cash, rising stock markets and house prices. Mr Lawson spent his winnings from the world economy on tax cuts – mostly for the Tory rich – whereas Mr Brown has put most of his windfalls into the public services.But the moment the world economy runs dry, so, too, does the Treasury. Tax receipts took a nosedive when the Tories’ recklessness was exposed. That exposure was then paid for by higher interest rates and a collapse in house prices, leaving millions of homeowners trapped in negative equity Everyone says we have learnt our lesson this time I fear not. The inevitability of a housing market collapse every bit as sour as before is there for all but experts and forecasters to see.The same is true of the stock markets “Don’t panic,” say the experts. For two years now I have been receiving quarterly bulletins from HSBC Investment Management, who look after my shrivelling nest egg. Like millions of others, I trusted the experts to make better decisions than me.

At the beginning of 2001 I noticed the first dramatic fall in my savings The FTSE index had just fallen to 6,000. Suggesting to HSBC that the index would end 12 months later at 5,000, I was met with the “don’t-be-so-silly, we-know-best-for-you” attitude. In January this year I had the temerity to tell my money minders that pessimism should be the order of the day.But with that reassuring air of superiority which experts have when dealing with fools who are easily parted with their money for others to invest, I was persuaded that the index would increase to around 5,700 later this year. We should have ignored the experts two years ago who told stock market investors: “don’t panic”.

There are times when it is necessary to panic and avoid the advice of experts.Now should be the time for voters to panic as well. The trouble is they will not do so – until it is too late. But we should panic at the prospect of the Chancellor’s decision to raise taxes in order to binge on the public services. Extraordinarily, after the events surrounding Stephen Byers, spin doctors’ e-mails and Mr Blair’s brouhaha with the press over the Queen Mother’s funeral, the polls have not reduced Labour’s lead. Public trust in Mr Blair has fallen, but concerns about the economy barely register.So far only those exposed directly to stock market losses have lost out. These are predominantly pensioners who have been taking income from their investments, previously secure in the knowledge that their capital was safe.